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  •  Responsibility
  •  Progressivity
  •  Incremental costs of climate action
    • Assuming a total global mitigation cost of $1,100 billion (1.0% of GWP), this yields a global average incremental mitigation cost of $39 per tonne CO2e in 2030.

  •  Kyoto obligations
  •  Mitigation smoothing



Use the controls to the left to change the parameter values and see the implications for national fair shares.

Country/region report in 2030 for Canada

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Global mitigation pathway: 1.5℃ pathway Responsibility weight: 0.5 Development threshold: $7,500
Progressive between thresholds: yes Luxury threshold: $50,000 Mult. on incomes above lux. thresh.: 1.0
Include emiss. embodied in trade: no Include non-CO2 gases: yes Include land-use emissions: yes
Cumulative since: 1850 Mitigation cost as % GWP: 1.0% Adaptation cost as % GWP: 1.0%
Use mitigation smoothing: yes Kyoto adjustment: none Emissions elasticity: 1.0
\n 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 MtCO2e

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Baseline Emissions
GHG emissions baselines (these are *not* business-as-usual pathways) are calculated as counter-factual non-policy baselines. The method applies recent improvements of carbon intensity to GDP forecast estimates. GDP estimates based on national data from the IMF's Worls Economic Outlook (WEO) for the next 5 years and then on regional data from IPCC (Fifth Assessment Report) through 2030. See Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines for details.
"Fair share" allocation
National allocation trajectory, as calculated for Canada using the specified pathways and parameters. The mitigation implied by this allocation can be either domestic or international – The Climate Equity Reference Project effort-sharing framework says nothing about how or where it occurs.
Domestic emissions
An example domestic emissions pathway for Canada, one that’s consistent with the selected parameters. This pathway does not describe the national fair share. Rather it is shown as a guide to thought. In this example, domestic emissions (the dotted green line) decline (relative to national BAU) at the same rate that global emissions decline below the global BAU. In the real world, a national domestic emissions trajectory will depend on the cost of domestic mitigation relative to the cost of mitigation in other countries, and on its chosen participation in international mechanisms for providing or receiving financial and technological support for mitigation.
Domestically-funded mitigation
Mitigation funded by Canada and carried out within its own borders. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged domestically is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Mitigation funded in other countries
Mitigation funded by Canada and carried out within other countries. The fraction of a country's mitigation fair share that is discharged in other countries is not specified by the CERP effort-sharing framework, but is rather a result of the international cost and mitigation sharing arrangements that it chooses to participate in.
Unconditional Pledge
Emissions consistent with Canada’s pledged emission reductions not conditional on other countries’ actions.

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Fair shares and pledges
Canada baseline emissions, projected to 2030 744 MtCO2e
Global mitigation requirement below global baseline, projected to 2030(A)27,821 MtCO2e
Canada share of global Responsibility Capacity Index in 2024 to 2030 period(B)3.1%
Canada mitigation fair share, projected to 2030(A × B) 
as tonnes below baseline 873 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita below baseline 21.4 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 117%
Averagge per capita fair share of global costs, expressed in financial terms 
Mitigation costs (assuming incremental global mitigation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $846
Adaptation cost (assuming global adaptation costs = 1.0% of GWP) $846
 
Canada 1990 emissions 547 MtCO2e
Canada emissions allocation, projected to 2030  
as tonnes -129 MtCO2e
as tonnes per capita -3.2 tCO2e
as percent of 1990 emissions -24%
as percent below 1990 emissions 124%
 
Canada unconditional pledge: reduce total emissions by 30% compared to 2005 by 2030
in tonnes below baseline 219 MtCO2e
in tonnes per capita below baseline 5.4 tCO2e/cap
as percent below baseline 30%
Amount by which this pledge falls short of mitigation fair share 16.0 tCO2e/cap
 

Data version: 7.3.3 (last change to database: 26 Mar 2024 12:51:44 PDT, fw-sql3--LJGLfY)
Calculator version: 3.0.1 (engine); 3.2.0 (cerc-web)