Global Climate Change Policy: Will Paris Succeed, Where Copenhagen Failed?

A nice precis of the current situation in the negotiations — as we turn the corner and head for Lima, and then for Paris — was just published by Ian McGregor in e-international relations, here.  The piece is notable for its clarity about the international support being as much a part of a nation’s fair share as its domestic emissions, and, notably, about the notion of “emerging shares.”  To wit:

“As CAN pointed out recently, when a country submits it INDC it is implicitly choosing a temperature target, the one that would be realized if all other countries were to act in a comparable manner, relative to their fair share of the global effort required.  If a country proposes a contribution that amounts to less than its fair share of the global effort required to keep temperature rise well below 2°C, then that country is, in effect, proposing an overall global temperature increase that exceeds 2°C.”

Many of the details will be familiar to the readers of this site, but the piece is nonetheless notable for its detailed realism, and its familiarity with the equity debate within the negotiations, and for the detail in which it lays out civil-society position on the fair shares problem.

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